全球变暖——杞人忧天？还是危机四伏？

来源：时间：2008-03-07 09:22:07

　　
　　There is no serious debate any more about one thing: More of these gases will cause more warming. Lindzen, who contends that any human climate influence is negligible and has long criticized those calling global warming a catastrophe, agreed on this basic fact in his article.
　　关于以下这一事态已不再有任何争议：更多的此类气体将导致更多的升温。林曾主张所有人类对于气候的影响是可以忽略不计的，而且一直指责那些把全球变暖称为是一种大灾难的人们，但他也在自己的文章中对这一基本事实表示同意。
　　
　　At the same time, few scientists agree with the idea that the recent spate of potent hurricanes, European heat waves, African drought and other weather extremes are, in essence, our fault. There is more than enough natural variability in nature to mask a direct connection, they say.
　　然而，几乎没有科学家同意这一观点：近来由强力飓风而发的洪水、欧洲的热浪、非洲的干旱以及其它的极端天气，其实都是我们的过错。他们表示，自然界里有着太多的自然变异使其直接联系不易被察觉。
　　
　　Even recent sightings of drowned polar bears cannot be firmly ascribed to human influence on climate given the big cyclical fluctuations of sea ice around the Arctic.
　　即使近来看到溺死的北极熊，也不能严格地归咎于是人类对于气候的影响引起了北极周围海冰的巨大周期性变动。
　　
　　The unresolved questions concern the pace and extent of future warming and the impact on wildlife, agriculture, disease, local weather and the height of the world's oceans - in other words, all of the things that matter to people.
　　一些悬而未决的问题关注着未来变暖的速度和程度，以及对于野生动物、农业、疾病、地方气候和全世界海洋高度的冲击——换句话说，所有关乎人类之事。
　　
　　The latest estimates, including a study published in the journal Nature, foresee a probable warming of somewhere around 3 degrees Celsius (5 Fahrenheit) should the concentration of carbon dioxide reach twice the 280- parts-per-million figure that had been the norm on earth for at least 400,000 years. This is far lower than some of the apocalyptic projections in recent years, but also far higher than mild warming rates focused on by skeptics and industry lobbyists.
　　最新的判断，包括在《自然》周刊中发表的一项研究，预见了一次可能发生的大约3摄氏度（5华氏度）的升温，二氧化碳浓度应要达到每百万280 份（至少40万年来都曾是地球上的标准）的2倍。这远远低于近年来的一些世界末日式预测，但也远远高于无神论者和行业说客们感兴趣的适度升温比率。
　　
　　As a result, by 2100 or so, sea levels could be several feet higher than they are now, and the new norm on the planet for centuries thereafter could be retreating shorelines as Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets relentlessly erode.
　　因此，到2100年左右，海平面可能会比现在高出几英尺，而且自那以后，几百年来这个行星上的新标准可能会是因南极和格陵兰冰原的不断消蚀而起的海岸线后移。
　　
　　Projections of how patterns of drought, deluges, heat and cold might change are among the most difficult, and will remain laden with huge uncertainties for a long time to come, said M. Granger Morgan, a physicist and policy expert at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.
　　匹兹堡的卡耐基•梅隆大学政策专家兼物理学家格林戈•摩根表示，有关干旱、洪涝、炎热以及寒冷的模式可能会如何改变的预测是非常困难的，而且未来很长一段时间内都会充满大量的不定因素。
　　
　　For example, while computer simulations of the climate consistently show that the centers of big continents are likely to grow drier, and winters and nights generally warmer, they cannot reliably predict conditions in Chicago or Shanghai.
　　例如，尽管计算机气候模拟能够始终如一地显示出大陆的中心可能会越来越干燥，同时冬季和夜晚则普遍变暖，但它们无法可靠地预知芝加哥或是上海的情况。
　　
　　By the clock of geology, this climate shift is unfolding at a dizzying, perhaps unprecedented pace, but by time scales relevant to people, it is happening in slow motion. If damage does not happen for 100 years or so, it is hard to persuade governments or voters to take action.
　　